#Kuchera snow method map tv

What about the global ensembles? The 06 UTC (10 PM) run of the ECMWF ensemble last night had an average of 4 inches of snow at Sea-Tac airport. Earlier runs of the HRRR had even less snowfall. The HRRR model (initialized at 5 PM last night) was probably the most accurate as a whole at gauging where the rain/snow boundaries would be, but the amounts were underestimated in the lowland areas that did receive snow. The WRF failed to pick up on the lower snow levels in portions of King and Snohomish Counties. The 4/3 km UW-WRF (initialized at the same time as above) showed a snow level around 1,500 ft except for a correct forecast of snow in portions of Kitsap County. Yesterday’s 12 UTC runs of the global models (GFS and ECMWF) both incorrectly showed several inches of snow (Kuchera method) falling across the central Sound by Monday morning, including Seattle. Social media reports suggested that Woodinville, Snoqualmie Ridge, Duvall, and other parts of the foothills received at least 3-4 inches of snow as well. The areas receiving snow were many of the usual favored spots for marginal lowland snow events including parts of Kitsap county and much of the King/Snohomish County foothills between I-90 and US-2.ĬoCoRaHS snowfall observations showed 6.5 inches near Seabeck on the Kitsap Peninsula (including thundersnow!), 6 inches near North Bend (up to 10″ in spots according to social media), and around an inch in the I-5 corridor around Lynnwood/South Everett.

Little to no additional accumulation in KC.The cold and snowy period came to an end for most, but not all of the western Washington lowlands on Sunday as a strong frontal system delivered heavy rainfall along with snow in a few spots. Olathe maybe only 4.7'Ħ AM to Noon FRI: Snow moves east of the area. Midnight: 6 AM FRI: Snow tapers off to flurries. Additional inch falls, totals up to 3.5'.Ħ PM to Midnight FRI: Snow, picks back up to moderate, heavy at times. Up to 2.5' of snow accumulation around KC, higher north. Up to 1' of snow accumulation.Ħ AM to Noon: Snow, light to moderate. Midnight to 3 AM: Snow starts moving in from the northwest.ģ AM to 6 AM: Snow, moderate to heavy at times. This will be a long duration light-moderate snowfall event. Kuchera may mean higher totals at times, but at the onset temperatures will be near freezing - so there may be some melt at the onset. NAM is the only model showing more than 0.53'. Someone may get the short end of the stick and only see 2-3' though. But in general I think most people should see 3-5'. I'm sticking to my gut.Ģ-5' for Kansas City metro area.

#Kuchera snow method map tv

While the most aggressive of TV stations around here are saying 4-8 inches and I even saw one last night that put out some insane ridiculous 17' total for Kansas City. Even the most aggressive of the computer models only show just over 1/2' of liquid equivalent. In fact we are in the core of the storm as far as snow totals appear. Latest data shows the snow continuing to target Kansas City proper. The reason ratios are usually higher at the end of the events here is because cold, dry air starts eroding at the precipitation back end. The other problem is many times the higher ratios will be at the back side of the event as the storm moves out and forcing weakens, and many times models overdo the moisture from the comma head as it moves out - 'anvil rain' type of stuff. BUT - and the big BUT here, is that in many events we get we have numerous challenges - warm ground, warm air at the onset or end of the event, limited moisture, sleet, you name it - and with all these challenges, even if part of the event falls at a 15:1 or higher ratio, the part of the event that doesn't produce anything or falls at a 7:1 or 8:1 ratio (if above freezing) pretty much means you can throw the Kuchera ratio away, and the average totals of the event equate more to 10:1 for the duration of the event (even if there was a few hours where it was 17:1.) Some storms we have gotten particularly the February 2013 blizzard produced 16:1 ratios, and some even have produced higher in the past in these parts. It can be somewhat accurate at times given some setups. The Kuchera ratio attempts to factor in colder temperatures to give higher ratios. This means for every 1' of snow we get, it melts down to 0.1' of rainfall. For people that are not aware, the way snow works is around 30-32 degrees snow melts down at a 10:1 ratio. Kuchera is a algorithm that predicts snowfall output using air temperatures and calculates the snowfall ratio.

that goes something on the lines of 'Never use Kuchera.' There is a famous phrase that started up this winter by a source that's initials is J.L.